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How to Trade Earnings With Options: My Nebius (NBIS) Earnings Trade, Step by Step
After two violent weeks for AI neoclouds, Nebius options priced an 11.5% earnings move. The typical report moves 5.6%, but the tails are thick. How I…
16 hrs ago
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CrossVol
14
2
3
AI Capex Cut: How a 20% Cut Could Tip the US Into Recession in 2027
BofA says a 20% cut in 2027 AI spending would take 7 to 8% off S&P 500 earnings. Alone, that is a slowdown. Add falling multiples, a hot CPI and 401(k…
Nov 10
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CrossVol
16
4
3
Stock Market Crash: What Happens Next, From a Dead Cat Bounce to the AI Bomb
Week in review, November 2-6, 2026: Thursday's 6.4% Nasdaq crash and Friday's dead cat bounce were the setup. Next, CoreWeave, Nebius and Nvidia report…
Nov 6
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CrossVol
49
2
10
The AI Depreciation Bomb: The Chips Last Three Years, the Loans Last Ten
My client David Wolf built the cost model of a $1 billion AI data center. Corrected and checked on Bloomberg, it says a GPU-hour must earn $3.83 if the…
Nov 5
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CrossVol
43
3
15
October 2026
Why the Euro Is Falling Against the Yen: French Stress Has Reached Dollar Funding
Since late September I have told clients to sell every EUR/JPY rally. France pays more than Italy, dollars are getting dearer for Europeans and real…
Oct 31
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CrossVol
16
2
6
Why Gold Is Falling: The Market Is Pricing a US Slowdown
Gold was the last piece. Credit, AI stocks, defensives and Treasuries already price a US slowdown. With inflation at 3.6%, the Fed and the Bank of Japan…
Oct 30
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CrossVol
22
2
9
The Megacaps Did Not Outrun the Fed
October 29, after the close. A hold with two votes for a hike, Alphabet down 12.6%, Amazon and Intel lower after hours, and Treasuries rallying on an AI…
Oct 29
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CrossVol
16
3
6
Stock Market Week in Review (October 19-23, 2026): AI Stocks Sell Off, Treasuries Rally, Brent Hits $117 and France's Bond Crisis Deepens
The semiconductor crash, the hedge fund reset, a Treasury short squeeze with half a trillion dollars of CTA buying still loaded, AI credit stress, Brent…
Oct 25
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CrossVol
15
5
France Bond Crisis: The OAT-Bund Spread Hits 178 bp and France Now Pays More Than Italy and Greece
Moody's kept France at Aa3, but French credit insurance now costs more than Mexico's. A data-driven look at the French debt crisis of October 2026: the…
Oct 25
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CrossVol
14
5
The VIX Woke Up Loaded the Other Way
Volatility products are net long, VIX calls are piling up and S&P 500 dealers are short gamma. What our models say about the days ahead. Data as of…
Oct 18
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CrossVol
18
7
9
Oil Above $100: What Futures Curves, Crack Spreads and Gas Spreads Say
WTI crossed $100 and Brent reached $109.86. A week of energy markets read through futures curves, calendar spreads, refining margins, options and…
Oct 17
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CrossVol
19
2
6
Here We Are
October 16, intraday. Equity volatility is catching up with what rates and cross asset vol were already saying.
Oct 16
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CrossVol
11
1
4
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