By Djellal Djouad. October 16, 2026, intraday.
Educational content, not investment advice. Options and futures carry a high risk of loss.
Here we are.
As of this capture, with the US session still open, the S&P 500 is down 1.15%, the Nasdaq 100 down 2.29% and Russell 2000 futures down 1.70%. The VIX is at 22.24, up 35%. The VVIX, the volatility of the VIX itself, is at 121, up 31%. The Nations TailDex, which tracks the cost of 30 day puts three standard deviations out of the money on the S&P 500, is up 71%.
What we wrote before today
On September 23 we wrote that the VIX was too calm for a 3.4 sigma rates shock. Treasuries had sold off hard, stocks and bonds fell together, and equity implied volatility barely moved. On October 4, we wrote that volatility was starting to talk even while the VIX slept, with our cross asset vol composite already at systemic. Today equity vol caught up.
On September 25, The Crash Fuse Is Lit argued that this time the fuse runs through AI capex financed by debt. Today the Nasdaq 100 is falling twice as fast as the S&P 500.
The test we set ourselves
On October 15, The Pension Valve Only Opens One Way set a test. On a day US stocks fall more than 1%, the long end of the Treasury curve should do better than the 2 year during US hours. Today is the first live candidate. We will report the verdict after the close.
Educational content, not investment advice. Options and futures carry a high risk of loss.